Consolidation in the precious metal has become the driving force for positive near-term momentum in the space, said Zev Spiro, CEO and chief market technician at Orips Research. It comes as both gold and silver trade around their highs for the year.
“As long as prices hold above support in the $1,190-$1,205 area, then the composure remains positive,” Spiro told CNBC’s “Futures Now” in a recent interview. “Upward momentum is expected with a breakout above the $1,275-$1,280 area. So, that’s where I expect the new wave of buying would come in and could carry prices higher.”
Spiro is forecasting the yellow metal to cost about $200 more an ounce by the end of the year,
He added that “$1,450 is my objective. Once we get a break above the $1,280 area, I suspect there will be a fast directional move higher.”
Yet bullion’s gain likely means the U.S. dollar’s pain. A lot of what happens to gold, which is often seen as a hedge against global uncertainty and inflation, hinges on the price of the dollar index, a basket of the greenback’s value against major trading partners. Precious metals often rally when the dollar weakens.
Although gold is poised to breakout, the outlook for the dollar may not be as negative as it currently appears.
“The dollar is really interesting. A large rectangle pattern or sideways base began in 2015. The pattern is defined by upper horizontal resistance in the $100 area,” Spiro said.
“A breakout above that upper horizontal resistance would trigger the pattern bullishly and signal a primary uptrend,” he added. “A break below the lower horizontal support would trigger the pattern bearishly and signal a primary downtrend.”
He acknowledges the dollar’s short-term tone has been negative because prices have been trending lower. But he points out this month’s hold and test above support has been positive for the dollar, and that’s a critical inflection point.
Nimble trader should step in on the long side at current levels, preferably right before the 94 area using 93 as a line in the sand. Spiro said a break below 93 would signal it’s time to short the dollar.