Global oil supplies rose 250 000 barrels per day (250 kb/d) in April from the preceding month to 96.2 mb/d as higher OPEC output more than offset deepening declines in non-OPEC countries, the International Energy Agency’s newly released Oil Market Report (OMR) for May has said.
But year-on-year, world output grew by just 50 kb/d in April versus the rise of more than 3.5 mb/d a year earlier.
Non-OPEC supply is forecast to drop by 0.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2016 to 56.8 mb/d.
OPEC crude output rose by 330 kb/d in April to 32.76 mb/d as a 300 kb/d jump in Iranian flows and a boost in supply from Iraq and the United Arab Emirates more than offset outages in Kuwait and Nigeria. Saudi output was steady near 10.2 mb/d. Iranian supply rose to 3.56 mb/d, a level last hit in November 2011, before sanctions were tightened.
The OMR for May revised global oil demand growth for the first-quarter of 2016 upwards to 1.4 mb/d, led by strong gains in India, China and, more surprisingly, Russia. For the year as a whole, growth will be around 1.2 mb/d, with demand reaching 95.9 mb/d.
Stock builds are beginning to slow in the OECD: in the first-quarter they grew at their slowest rate since the last quarter of 2014 and February saw the first draw in a year. In March, OECD commercial inventories fell by a slim 1.1 mb, with preliminary data for April suggesting that stocks rebounded while oil held in floating storage rose.
Global refinery throughput for the current quarter is forecast at 79.6 mb/d, with the 0.7 mb/d year-on-year gain falling below anticipated demand growth of 1.2 mb/d. The estimate for the previous quarter has been revised higher by 0.2 mb/d to 79.5 mb/d. India and Saudi Arabia are set to lead global annual increases this year.
The May OMR also features a focus on the change of leadership at the Saudi Oil Ministry as well as an in-depth assessment of the difficulties Nigeria, Libya and Venezuela are having maintaining output. Another article available to subscribers examines the impact of the recent wildfires in Alberta. Other articles look at Saudi Aramco’s downstream ambitions and the outlook for European refiners.
The Oil Market Report (OMR) is a monthly International Energy Agency publication which provides a view of the state of the international oil market and projections for oil supply and demand 12-18 months ahead.